A summary of "An Analysis of the Estimated Figure of induced abortions in

sharing with you another insightful article from the prolife newsletter 7/28/08:

A summary of "An Analysis of the Estimated Figure of induced abortions in
the Philippines in 2000 as published in a 2006 Guttmacher Institute report
by Susheela Singh et al"

By Dr. Roberto De Vera
University of Asia and the Pacific

In the 2006 Guttmacher Institute report "Unintended Pregnancies and Induced
Abortions in the Philippines: Causes and Consequences", Susheela Singh et al
estimated that there were 473,000 induced abortions completed in the
Philippines in 2000 using a method consisting of three steps. First, based
on reports gathered from 2,039 hospitals which contained the top ten leading
causes of admission in the 1999-2001 period, they arrived at an estimate of
the number of women in 2000 who were hospitalized due to complications from
both induced and spontaneous abortions. Second, they calculated the number
of women hospitalized for induced abortions by subtracting the estimated
number of women hospitalized for spontaneous abortions (or miscarriages)
from the estimated number of women hospitalized for induced and spontaneous
abortions. Finally, they arrived at the estimated number of women who had
induced abortions by multiplying the estimated number of women hospitalized
for complications due to induced abortions by 6 to account for the women who
had induced abortions who didn't go to the hospital.

We find that their method overestimates the figure of induced abortions in
the Philippines in 2000 because of three flaws. These flaws had the effect
of 1) overestimating the figure for women hospitalized for spontaneous and
induced abortions due to an assumption that is weakly supported by
statistical data; 2) underestimating the number of women hospitalized for
complications due to spontaneous abortions (or miscarriages) because it
mistakenly covers only those women with spontaneous abortions occurring in
12th to 22nd week of pregnancy who were hospitalized for complications; and
3) using a multiplier which most likely is higher than the ratio of the
number of women who have induced abortions to the number of women who are
hospitalized for complications due to induced abortions.

Using modified version of the Singh et al methodology (corrected to account
for the above flaws), we arrived at an alternative estimate of 25,924
induced abortions in the Philippines in 2000 (1.3 abortions per 1,000 women
in the reproductive age). Using a second method, we multiplied 0.0117, the
share of induced abortions to live births by the number of live births in
2000, to arrive at second estimate of 20,831 induced abortions in the
Philippines in 2000 (1.1 abortions per 1,000 women of reproductive age). We
consider these two estimates of induced abortion in the Philippines in 2000
to be more reasonable than the 473,000 estimate (24.5 induced abortions per
1,000 women of reproductive age) published in the 2006 Guttmacher Institute
report.


Ma. Fenny C. Tatad
Executive Director, Bishops-Legislators Caucus of the Philippines